EIA: This Week in Petroleum - 27 March 2019 - eng Избранное

Среда, 27 марта 2019 22:07

Petroleum product exports set record high in 2018

U.S. exports of total petroleum products set a record high in 2018, reaching an annual average of 5.6 million barrels per day (b/d), an increase of 366,000 b/d from 2017 levels. The three largest individual petroleum product exports in 2018 were distillate, propane, and motor gasoline (Figure 1). U.S. exports of motor gasoline (including blending components) and propane set record highs in 2018 and exports of distillate were the second highest on record, following the high set in 2017.

Figure 1. Annual U.S. petroleum product exports

Total U.S. petroleum product exports set a record high in 2018 for the 16th consecutive year. From 2009 to 2013, distillate exports contributed the most to annual growth. However, from 2014 to 2018, exports of hydrocarbon gas liquids, which include propane, drove U.S. petroleum product export growth.

As U.S. crude oil production increased during the past decade, gross inputs into refineries also increased. Petroleum products can be used domestically, exported, or put into inventory. In 2018, record-high levels of U.S. crude oil production and refinery runs helped refiners export large volumes of petroleum products, even with high levels of U.S. demand.

Despite an 80,000 b/d decrease in exports compared with 2017, distillate remained the most exported petroleum product in 2018, averaging 1.3 million b/d, or approximately 25% of U.S. refinery net production. Distillate exports were still more than 100,000 b/d higher than the previous five-year average (2013-2017). The United States exported distillate to 64 different countries in 2018, with the largest volumes destined for Mexico. Mexico received an average of 298,000 b/d (23%) of U.S. distillate exports (Figure 2), increasing 42,000 b/d compared with the 2017 levels. Mexico’s increasing exports were likely driven by the country’s refineries continuing to operate under capacity in 2018, as reported by trade press reports. Brazil received the second-largest share of distillate from the United States, averaging 151,000 b/d (12%), down by 57,000 b/d from 2017 levels. Chile, Peru, and the Netherlands comprise the remainder of the top five recipients of U.S. distillate exports.

Figure 2. Monthly U.S. distillate exports and destinations

U.S. propane exports reached a record high of 972,000 b/d in 2018, surpassing the previous record of 914,000 b/d set in 2017. Propane exports in 2018 surpassed motor gasoline exports for the third consecutive year and remained the second-largest U.S. petroleum product export. Unlike other U.S. petroleum product exports, which tend to stay in the Western Hemisphere, significant volumes of U.S. propane exports often reach Asian markets, home to three of the top five destinations (Figure 3). Japan received the largest share of U.S. propane exports, receiving more than 258,000 b/d (27%) of total U.S. propane exports, an increase of 48,000 b/d from 2017 volumes. Exports to Korea and the Netherlands increased by 25,000 b/d and 21,000 b/d, respectively. However, exports to China fell by 62,000 b/d, a 49% year-over-year decline. Mexico received the second-largest share of U.S. propane exports again in 2018 at an average of 131,000 b/d, which was down 7,000 b/d from 2017 levels.

Figure 3. Monthly U.S. propane exports and destinations

U.S. exports of motor gasoline (including blending components) reached 44 countries in 2018 and set a record high of 951,000 b/d, an increase of 126,000 b/d from 2017 levels (Figure 4). This increase in exports came despite the strong U.S. consumption of gasoline at 9.3 million b/d in 2018, only slightly lower than the record-high level of consumption set in 2017. U.S. refiner and blender net production of finished motor gasoline increased more than 100,000 b/d to 10.1 million b/d in 2018, a record high, and helped contribute to the simultaneous high levels of domestic consumption and export volumes. The five largest shares of U.S. gasoline exports were all in the Americas. In 2018, Mexico received 529,000 b/d of U.S. gasoline exports, or 56% of total U.S. gasoline exports, which was 60,000 b/d more than in 2017. Exports to Canada increased by 25,000 b/d, to average 62,000 b/d (6%) in 2018.

Figure 4. Monthly U.S. motor gasoline exports and destinations

U.S. average regular gasoline and diesel prices increase

The U.S. average regular gasoline retail price rose nearly 8 cents from the previous week to $2.62 per gallon on March 25, down nearly 3 cents from the same time last year. The West Coast price rose nearly 12 cents to $3.14 per gallon, the Midwest price rose nearly 9 cents to $2.56 per gallon, the Rocky Mountain and Gulf Coast prices each rose nearly 8 cents to $2.40 per gallon and $2.38 per gallon, respectively, and the East Coast price rose nearly 5 cents to $2.57 per gallon.

The U.S. average diesel fuel price rose 1 cent to $3.08 per gallon on March 25, 7 cents higher than a year ago. The Rocky Mountain and West Coast prices each rose 3 cents to $2.97 per gallon and $3.53 per gallon, respectively, the East Coast and Gulf Coast prices each rose nearly 1 cent to $3.13 per gallon and $2.88 per gallon, respectively, and the Midwest price rose slightly, remaining at $2.99 per gallon.

Propane/propylene inventories rise

U.S. propane/propylene stocks increased by 0.5 million barrels last week to 51.6 million barrels as of March 22, 2019, 7.4 million barrels (16.7%) greater than the five-year (2014-2018) average inventory levels for this same time of year. Gulf Coast, Midwest, and Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories increased by 0.8 million barrels, 0.3 million barrels, and 0.1 million barrels, respectively, while East Coast inventories decreased by 0.6 million barrels. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 11.8% of total propane/propylene inventories.

Residential heating oil prices flat, propane prices decrease

As of March 25, 2019, residential heating oil prices averaged almost $3.22 per gallon, unchanged from last week’s price but 12 cents per gallon higher than last year's price at this time. The wholesale heating oil price for this week averaged $2.09 per gallon, slightly higher than last week but nearly 3 cents per gallon lower than a year ago.

Residential propane prices averaged almost $2.40 per gallon, 1 cent per gallon lower than last week and 8 cents per gallon lower than a year ago. Wholesale propane prices averaged almost $0.78 per gallon, 6 cents per gallon less than last week and 10 cents per gallon below last year's price. This is the last data collection for the 2018-2019 State Heating Oil and Propane Program (SHOPP) heating season. Data collection will resume on October 7, 2019, for publication on Wednesday, October 9, 2019.

For questions about This Week in Petroleum, contact the Petroleum Markets Team at 202-586-4522.

Retail prices (dollars per gallon)

Conventional Regular Gasoline Prices Graph. Residential Heating Oil Prices Graph. On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices Graph. Residential Propane Prices Graph.
 Retail pricesChange from last
Gasoline 2.623 0.075 -0.025
Diesel 3.080 0.010 0.070
Heating Oil 3.219 0.000 0.124
Propane 2.397 -0.013 -0.083

Futures prices (dollars per gallon*)

Crude Oil Futures Price Graph. RBOB Regular Gasoline Futures Price Graph. Heating Oil Futures Price Graph.
 Futures pricesChange from last
Crude oil 59.04 0.52 -6.84
Gasoline 1.926 0.068 -0.108
Heating oil 1.966 -0.002 -0.052
*Note: Crude oil price in dollars per barrel.

Stocks (million barrels)

U.S. Crude Oil Stocks Graph. U.S. Distillate Stocks Graph. U.S. Gasoline Stocks Graph. U.S. Propane Stocks Graph.
 StocksChange from last
Crude oil 442.3 2.8 12.3
Gasoline 238.6 -2.9 -1.0
Distillate 130.2 -2.1 1.2
Propane 51.637 0.527 16.034
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