EIA: Country Analysis Brief: Iran - April 2018 - eng (pdf) Избранное

Вторник, 10 апреля 2018 00:40

Iran holds the world’s fourth-largest proved crude oil reserves and the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves. Despite its abundant reserves, Iran’s crude oil production has undergone years of underinvestment and effects of international sanctions. Natural gas production has expanded, the growth has been lower than expected. Since the lifting of sanctions that targeted Iran’s oil sector, oil production has reached more than 3.8 million barrels per day in 2017.

Iran holds some of the world’s largest deposits of proved oil and natural gas reserves, ranking as the world’s fourth-largest and second-largest reserve holder of oil and natural gas, respectively. Iran also ranks among the world’s top 10 oil producers and top 5 natural gas producers. Iran produced almost 4.7 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum and other liquids in 2017 and an estimated 7.2 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of dry natural gas in 2017.[1]

The Strait of Hormuz, off the southeastern coast of Iran, is an important route for oil exports from Iran and other Persian Gulf countries. At its narrowest point, the Strait of Hormuz is 21 miles wide, yet an estimated 18.5 million b/d of crude oil and refined products flowed through it in 2016 (nearly 30% of all seaborne-traded oil and almost 20% of total oil produced globally). Liquefied natural gas (LNG) volumes also flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Approximately 3.7 Tcf of LNG was transported from Qatar via the Strait of Hormuz in 2016, accounting for more than 30% of global LNG trade.

Despite Iran’s abundant reserves, crude oil production stagnated and even declined between 2012 and 2016 as nuclear-related international sanctions that targeted Iran’s oil exports hindered progress across Iran’s energy sector, which affected upstream investment in both oil and natural gas projects. At the end of 2011, the United States and the European Union (EU) imposed sanctions as a result of Iran’s nuclear activities, which went into effect in mid-2012. These sanctions targeted the Iranian energy sector and impeded Iran’s ability to sell oil, resulting in a near 1.0-million b/d drop in crude oil and condensate exports in 2012 compared with the previous year. Since the oil sector and banking sanctions were lifted, as outlined in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in January 2016, Iranian crude oil and condensate production and exports have risen to pre-2012 levels.

Iran’s oil and natural gas export revenue was $33.6 billion in Fiscal Year (FY) 2015-2016, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), having decreased nearly 40% from $55.4 billion in FY 2014-2015. EIA estimates that Iran’s oil net export revenues totaled $36 billion in 2016. The sudden drop was the result of continued depressed export volumes and lower crude oil prices, which combined resulted in low total export revenue. In FY 2016-2017, oil and natural gas export revenue was estimated to have risen to $57.4 billion as crude oil export volumes rose following the implementation of the JCPOA.[2] Most of the export revenues come from crude oil and condensate exports because Iran exports only a small volume of natural gas. Iran consumes most of the natural gas it produces.

Iranian development of its natural gas resources continues and has picked up pace following the implementation of the JCPOA. However, production growth had been slower than expected because sanctions targeting Iran’s nuclear activities between 2012 and 2016 also affected natural gas development as a result of lack of foreign investment and technology. Iran’s natural gas activities are centered on the South Pars natural gas field, located offshore in the Persian Gulf, which holds roughly 40% of Iran’s proved natural gas reserves.[3] The field is being developed mainly by Iranian companies.

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