IRENA: Global Energy Transformation: A Roadmap to 2050 - April 2019 - eng (pdf) ^{Избранное}

Increased use of renewable energy, combined with intensified electrification, could prove decisive for the world to meet key climate goals by 2050. This study from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) highlights immediately deployable, cost-effective options for countries to fulfil climate commitments and limit the rise of global temperatures. The envisaged energy transformation would also reduce net costs and bring significant socio-economic benefits, such as increased economic growth, job creation and overall welfare gains.

The report – the second under the Global Energy Transformation banner – expands IRENA’s comprehensive roadmap, which examines technology pathways and policy implications to ensure a sustainable energy future. Ramping up electricity to over half of the global energy mix (up from one-fifth currently) in combination with renewables would reduce the use of fossil fuels, responsible for most greenhouse-gas emissions.

See the digital story based on this report on How to Transform Energy System And Reduce Carbon Emissions

Renewables already make up more than half of newly installed power-generation capacity. Yet their overall share in the energy mix (including power, heat and transport) needs to grow six times faster, IRENA’s analysis shows.

National climate commitments under the Paris Agreement largely hinge on energy decarbonisation. The historic 2015 climate deal, endorsed nearly worldwide, calls for keeping the rise in average global temperatures “well below” two degrees Celsius (2oC) during the present century, compared to pre-industrial levels.

Achieving a climate-safe future, however, depends on swift global action. Current plans and policies, including Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), fall far short. Energy-related emissions have risen around 1% yearly since 2015, while the world’s “carbon budget” looks set to run out within a decade.

Based on IRENA’s analysis, energy-related carbon-dioxide (CO2) emission reductions would have to decline 70% by 2050, compared to current levels, to meet climate goals. A large-scale shift to electricity from renewables could deliver 60% of those reductions; 75% if renewables for heating and transport are factored in; and 90% with ramped-up energy efficiency.

With electricity becoming the dominant energy carrier, global power supply could more than double, the report finds. Renewable sources, including solar and wind, could meet 86% of power demand.

The energy transformation would boost gross domestic product (GDP) by 2.5% and total employment by 0.2% globally in 2050. It would also bring broader social and environmental benefits. Health, subsidy and climate-related savings would be worth as much as USD 160 trillion cumulatively over a 30-year period, the report finds. Thus, every dollar spent in transforming the global energy system provides a payoff of at least USD 3 and potentially more than USD 7, depending on how externalities are valued.

Renewables, meanwhile, would create more new jobs than those lost in fossil-fuel industries. Policy inputs can further improve the socio-economic footprint of the transformation.

Key findings

• Today the question is no longer if energy transition is possible, but how to make it happen faster. Renewables and electrification are a key climate solution.
• Renewable energy supply, increased electrification of energy services, and energy efficiency can deliver more than 90% of needed reductions to energy-related CO2 emissions. Renewable energy and electrification alone deliver 75% of emission reductions.
• The transition towards a decarbonised global energy system will require scaling up investments in the energy sector by a further 16% (an additional USD 15 trillion by 2050). In total USD 110 trillion would be invested in the energy system, representing on average 2% of global gross domestic product (GDP) per year over the period.
• The REmap Case would result in a cumulative reduction in fossil fuel subsidies of USD 15 trillion below what would have occurred in the Reference Case by 2050, and in a net reduction of USD 10 trillion when including the increased support needed for renewables in the REmap Case.
• In total the savings from avoided subsidies and reduced environmental and health damages are about three to seven times larger than the additional energy system costs. In monetary terms, total savings resulting from the REmap Case could amount to between USD 65 trillion and USD 160 trillion over the period to 2050.
• By year 2050, the REmap energy transition brings about relative improvements of GDP and whole-economy employment of 2.5% and 0.2% respectively. In cumulative terms from 2019 to 2050 the GDP gains of the REmap Case over the Reference Case add up to 99 USD trillion.
• Climate damage impacts increase with time as the climate system responds to the cumulative GHG emissions. Macroeconomic performance under both the Reference and REmap cases is significantly impacted by climate damages, leading to a global GDP reduction of 15.5% and 13.2%, respectively, by 2050.