McKinsey: Global gas outlook to 2050 - February 2021 - eng (pdf) ^{Избранное}

While we saw high levels of volatility in 2020, the outlook for gas and LNG shows strong growth, resilience, and changing expectations for emissions amid widespread carbon-neutrality aspirations.

Executive summary

2020 was an unprecedented year for gas and liquefied-natural-gas (LNG) markets. Gas demand declined by 3 percent. LNG demand was more resilient and managed to grow 1 percent. However, the year saw high levels of LNG market volatility with both extreme oversupply and extreme tightness during the course of the year.

Gas will be the strongest-growing fossil fuel and will increase by 0.9 percent from 2020 to 2035. It is the only fossil fuel expected to grow beyond 2030, peaking in 2037. From 2035 to 2050, gas demand will decline by 0.4 percent. This relatively moderate decline is due to hard-to-replace gas use in the chemical and industrial sectors, which limits the impact of an accelerating decline in gas used for power.