McKinsey: Global oil supply-and-demand outlook to 2040 - February 2021 - eng (pdf) ^{Избранное}

COVID-19 sent shocks through global oil markets, with oil demand and supply still struggling to return to pre-pandemic levels. Our outlook looks back at 2020 and presents our most-likely scenarios for oil demand, supply, and prices through 2040.

Executive summary

Recap 2020

Demand has partially recovered since April 2020 but still ended the year approximately 9 million barrels per day (MMb/d) below the 2019 level, with continued COVID-19-related lockdown measures in January 2021 keeping it around 6 MMb/d lower than January 2019.

Supply remained robust until April 2020 and then dropped by 13 to 14 MMb/d in May, driven by OPEC+ 1 cuts and shut-ins (that have mostly returned to the market), thus showing the willingness of OPEC+ to continue interventions. The market saw an oversupply of approximately 20 MMb/d in April 2020, pushing Brent prices to $18 per barrel of oil (bbl) for the month, before recovering to $50/bbl by the end of the year.

OECD commercial inventories remain at high levels and, although we have seen draws over the past months, they are still 150,000 barrels above pre-COVID-19 levels.