IEA: Oil Market Report - March 2019 - eng (pdf) Избранное

Суббота, 13 апреля 2019 19:47

Highlights

  • Global oil demand growth slowed sharply in 4Q18 to 0.95 mb/d due to lower OECD demand, which declined by 0.3 mb/d year-on-year. Large falls were seen in Europe and Asia and there was slower growth in the Americas.
  • Our global growth estimate for 2018 and our forecast for 2019 are nevertheless unchanged, at 1.3 mb/d and 1.4 mb/d, respectively, supported by solid non-OECD growth. Data for parts of the Middle East and Asia have been revised upwards.
  • Global oil production fell by 340 kb/d in February as OPEC and non-OPEC cuts deepened. Output of 99.7 mb/d was still up a hefty 1.5 mb/d on a year ago, led by non-OPEC and the US. Non-OPEC growth will slow from 2018's record 2.8 mb/d to 1.8 mb/d in 2019.
  • OPEC crude oil production in February dropped by 240 kb/d, to 30.68 mb/d, on losses in Venezuela and lower output from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Outperformance by Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies with supply cuts pushed OPEC compliance to 94%.
  • Global refining throughput returned to growth, with 1Q19 expected to be up 0.8 mb/d y-o-y. China accounts for over 90% of the increase, while weaker performance in other regions supported product cracks, resulting in the first gains in refinery margins since November. 
  • OECD commercial oil stocks rose 8.6 mb on the month in January to their highest level since November 2017. However, the increase was lower than the seasonal norm. Preliminary data for February points to a sharp drop in inventories.
  • Brent futures reached a four-month high above $67/bbl, in mid-March on reduced production from OPEC. Tighter medium-heavy supplies boosted crudes such as Mars and Dalia and sent the Brent-Dubai EFS to a nine-year low.
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