IEA: Oil Market Report - April 2019 - eng (pdf) Избранное

Среда, 15 мая 2019 18:33

Highlights

  • Our global demand growth estimates for 2018 and 2019 are again unchanged at 1.3 mb/d and 1.4 mb/d, respectively. After a slow start to the year, OECD growth will be 0.3 mb/d, with non-OECD growing by 1.1 mb/d.
  • Demand in China, India and the US is estimated to have grown by 1 mb/d in Jan-Feb 2019. OECD demand fell in 4Q18 for the first time since end-2014 and also in 1Q19, mainly on weaker European numbers, but it will recover, led by the US.
  • Global oil supply dropped 340 kb/d in March, as OPEC+ cuts deepened and Venezuelan output fell sharply. At 99.2 mb/d, it was 3.1 mb/d below November 2018 and up 530 kb/d y-o-y. In 2019, non-OPEC production will grow 1.7 mb/d versus 2.8 mb/d last year.
  • OPEC crude oil production tumbled 550 kb/d in March, to 30.1 mb/d, on further cuts from Saudi Arabia and steep losses in Venezuela. Saudi output dropped to its lowest in over two years, boosting compliance with supply cuts to 153%. The call on OPEC rises to 30.9 mb/d in 2Q19.
  • Global refining throughput fell by 2.5 mb/d in March as unplanned outages and accidents hindered the US in particular. Our 2019 growth estimate is revised down to 0.7 mb/d on tighter crude market fundamentals: 3Q19 could see the largest draws since 2011.
  • OECD oil stocks fell by 21.7 mb on the month in February after three months of increases. The decrease was more than the five-year average of 5.1 mb due to larger gasoline draws and a lower crude build. March preliminary data show a significant crude build in Europe.
  • ICE Brent reached a five-month high above $71/bbl in early April on supply concerns. New infrastructure capacity in the US helped WTI to narrow its discount to Brent to $7/bbl. Gasoline markets continued to rally, while cracks for most other refined products fell in March.
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