ОБЪЕДИНЕНИЕ ЛИДЕРОВ НЕФТЕГАЗОВОГО СЕРВИСА И МАШИНОСТРОЕНИЯ РОССИИ
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Пятница, 14 июня 2019 12:42

IEA: Oil Market Report - May 2019 - eng (pdf) Избранное

Отчет устарел. Актуальный выпуск за последний месяц по ссылке здесь.

Highlights

  • Our 2018 oil demand growth estimate has been revised down by 70 kb/d to 1.2 mb/d and our 2019 forecast is reduced by 90 kb/d to 1.3 mb/d. Revisions for 2018 impacted mainly non-OECD Asia and African countries. The 2019 revision is seen in OECD Asia in 1Q19.
  • Non-OECD countries will drive global oil demand in 2019, adding 1.1 mb/d of growth, with China and India growing by 0.7 mb/d. Net OECD growth will be 0.2 mb/d, led by the US. Global oil demand will average 100.4 mb/d in 2019.
  • In April, global oil supply fell 300 kb/d, with Canada, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Iran leading the losses. At 99.3 mb/d, output was up 775 kb/d on a year ago. In 2019, non-OPEC supply will grow 1.9 mb/d versus 2.8 mb/d last year.
  • OPEC crude output rose 60 kb/d in April to 30.21 mb/d as higher flows from Libya, Nigeria and Iraq offset Iranian losses. Effective spare capacity was 3.2 mb/d, with Saudi Arabia holding 70%. The call on OPEC is 30.9 mb/d in 2Q19, falling to 30.2 mb/d for 2H19.
  • In 2Q19, refining throughput is seeing a third consecutive quarter of lacklustre growth, but is expected to climb by 1 mb/d a month between May and August. A limited impact on refining activity in Europe is expected from the Druzhba pipeline disruption.
  • OECD oil stocks fell by 25.8 mb in March to 2 849 mb, more than the five-year average of 4 mb owing to counter-seasonal crude draws. In days of forward demand, stocks amount to 59.8 days, their lowest level since July 2018.
  • ICE Brent rose to a five-month high of $74.57/bbl in late April after the end of US waivers on Iranian exports, but has since fallen by 6%. Gasoline strengthened in April ahead of the peak demand season. Cracks for other products fell due to higher crude prices.

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