IEA: Oil Market Report - February 2019 - eng (pdf) Избранное

Пятница, 15 марта 2019 17:57

Отчет устарел. Актуальный выпуск за последний месяц по ссылке здесь.

Highlights

  • Our global demand estimate for 2018 is unchanged. Growth in 4Q18 was robust at 1.4 mb/d y-o-y and for 2018 as a whole growth was 1.3 mb/d. China (0.44 mb/d), India (0.21 mb/d) and the US (0.54 mb/d) contributed 1.19 mb/d of the total.
  • Growth in demand in 2019 is expected to be 1.4 mb/d, unchanged from our last Report. It is supported by lower prices and the start-up of petrochemical projects in China and the US. Slowing economic growth will, however, limit any upside.
  • Global supply fell 1.4 mb/d to 99.7 mb/d in January as the Vienna Agreement and Alberta's cuts took effect. Our non-OPEC growth estimates have increased to 2.7 mb/d in 2018 and to 1.8 mb/d in 2019. This is mainly due to higher US output.
  • OPEC crude output was 930 kb/d lower in January at 30.83 mb/d, a near four-year low. Compliance with the Vienna Agreement was 86%, with Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait cutting by more than promised. Compliance by non-OPEC participants was only 25%.
  • In December, global refining throughput fell 0.7 mb/d y-o-y instead of an expected increase due to lower activity in Asia's four largest refiners: China, India, Japan and Korea. Our 2019 forecast is unchanged, with runs expected to grow by 1.2 mb/d.
  • At end-December, OECD oil company stocks were 5.6 mb below the November level at 2 858 mb, up 4.6 mb compared with end-2017. The major stock build in 2H18 was in non-OECD countries. Government stocks drew in 2018 by 22.1 mb, mainly in the US and Europe.
  • Brent futures reached a two-month high of $62.75/bbl in early February, with WTI prices around $10/bbl below. The Brent-Dubai EFS narrowed to an eight-year low as sour crude markets tightened. Ample supplies of gasoline saw cracks decline into negative territory.
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